Predictions
The table below summarises the relative confidence (or lack of) of Division Two supporters at the start of play. As ever, the results are sensitive to the timing of the survey before/after key transfers. Sixteen clubs predict a top-half finish with eleven predicting a play-off place The mean prediction is down from 9th to 10th, the second drop in successive years in part due to the falling confidence of Watford's support which makes up over a quarter of the survey. Particularly evident is a stretching out of predictions in the "middle" of the table below, with four predicted finishing places separating the top eleven and four separating the next three - indicating a growing gap between the two ends of the table, at least in perception.
Last year's confidence position in brackets...
VOTES MEAN PRED
1 (-) Crystal Palace 65 2.05
2 (-) Norwich 53 2.23
----------------------------------------------
3 (2) Wolves 49 2.31
4 (-) Southampton 30 4.20
5 (8) Ipswich 31 4.97
6 (4) Sheff Utd 63 5.03
----------------------------------------------
7 (18) Preston 74 5.25
8 (11) Leeds 35 5.66
9 (9) Reading 131 5.77
10 (15) Derby 31 5.81
11 (7) Leicester 55 6.07
12 (17) QPR 31 6.87
13 (21) Burnley 28 8.15
14 (10) Coventry 31 10.65
15 (-) Luton 26 11.81
16 (-) Hull 32 12.22
17 (14) Stoke 29 13.34
18 (16) Plymouth 31 13.61
19 (-) Sheff Wed 55 14.47
20 (12) Millwall 45 14.91
21 (19) Watford 401 16.11
----------------------------------------------
22 (13) Cardiff 28 16.54
23 (20) Crewe 29 17.72
24 (24) Brighton 34 18.15
TOTAL 1417 10.31
The Perfect Table
The table below summarises the pet hates and sympathies of Division Two supporters by standardising each club's votes for promotion and relegation choices to a weight of 25 and then summing. Thus, a club with 25 correspondents has their votes added straight into the pile, whilst a club from which 50 responses were received will have its votes halved. From Watford, for example, the number of votes for relegation for each club according to the Hornets' support is multiplied by 25/401=0.0623... so the 43 votes for promotion that Brighton received from Watford fans are scaled down to 43 x 0.0623 = 2.68 votes in this table. Clear ? Good.
Norwich's relegation from the Premiership sees Ipswich drop to second in the popularity stakes - the Anglian rivals occupying the top two positions for the first time in three seasons, whilst Palace, like Wolves last year, return much higher in the popularity table than they left it. No change in the bottom three though. Derby and Preston pick up the annual sympathy vote for play-off screwups and shoot up the table from last year's positions. The other big movers are the Hornets, due in no small part to the arrival of our friends from up the Motorway, with the consequence that we're now less popular than Wolves. Which would be alarming, if you cared about such things. Luton themselves are clearly not just disliked by ourselves, Plymouth and QPR also giving them a good kicking leaving them on the edge of the "relegation zone", albeit comfortably clear of Millwall.
Coventry retain their position of side voters claim greatest indifference to with 47 votes in total, a modest improvement on last year's 42 with Reading next in on 61. Leeds provoke the most votes, most of them in the same direction. As ever, the anti-Watford vote may have been curtailed by those with ingrained anti-Watford sentiment not bothering to participate in the survey.
UP DOWN POINTS
1 (-) Norwich 188.71 41.14 147.57
2 (1) Ipswich 140.99 38.32 102.66
---------------------------------------------------------
3 (5) Crewe 91.81 36.17 55.63
4 (13) Preston 70.01 23.51 46.50
5 (17) Derby 47.98 33.01 14.98
6 (3) Plymouth 41.07 26.16 14.91
---------------------------------------------------------
7 (14) Reading 38.79 23.89 14.90
8 (-) Hull 69.46 58.88 10.58
9 (4) QPR 32.42 24.20 8.21
10 (-) Crystal Palace 83.31 84.23 -0.92
11 (-) Southampton 73.82 79.61 -5.78
12 (11) Coventry 16.50 30.22 -13.73
13 (-) Sheff Wed 45.86 59.68 -13.81
14 (10) Wolves 69.94 93.47 -23.53
15 (7) Watford 20.52 49.81 -29.29
16 (18) Leicester 11.25 61.45 -50.20
17 (15) Brighton 43.80 102.51 -58.72
18 (19) Stoke 7.65 77.74 -70.09
19 (20) Burnley 8.90 79.19 -70.29
20 (16) Sheff Utd 27.40 100.51 -73.11
21 (-) Luton 19.87 103.18 -83.30
---------------------------------------------------------
22 (22) Millwall 11.37 134.36 -122.99
23 (23) Cardiff 7.26 207.17 -199.91
24 (24) Leeds 31.33 231.60 -200.27
TOTAL 1200 1800
Choice Signing
Three runaway leaders here, Dean Ashton coming in on top with 219 votes, followed by Andy Johnson on 184 and Peter Crouch on 106. With Crouch already departed, it will be interesting to see whether any of these three remain at this level come the end of August - last year's top three were in the Prem by season end. Steve Sidwell of Reading polled the most votes of players who played in this division last year, but was a distant fourth overall.
World Cup or Promotion?
Just under 70% chose Promotion for their side over World Cup success for their country. Whilst this is quite a conclusive overall result, it's a considerable drop from two years ago, when 75% of a similarly sized poll chose Promotion over European Championship success - perhaps emphasising the significance of the global tournament. Wales's chances of qualifying already being remote might have been expected to sway the Cardiff vote, although they came in with a roughly average preference for the division. Leicester and Watford expressed the greatest desire for international success over promotion, albeit edging towards a 50/50 rather than clear preference for the World Cup option... in our own case we can only speculate as to the reasons for our own club's success seeming less important. Sheffield United, Preston and Palace were keenest on promotion, although all the recently relegated clubs placed a relatively strong emphasis on going back up.
In general, what's your opinion of beards ?
A distinct lack of consensus overall... "Can be grown under license" received the greatest number of votes(377), but the hard-line "Ban 'em" option came a close second on 355 suggesting that a cross-division agreement on this issue is not going to happen any time soon. 294 elected that this was not a matter for government intervention, 218 suggested encouragement where appropriate whilst only 108 thought that beards should be made compulsory.
Stoke and Wolves posted the highest votes in favour of compulsory beardage, which either suggests something geographical or the lingering cultural influence of George Berry - Crewe, interestingly, provided no votes in favour of this option, supporting the latter explanation. Cardiff and Reading were in favour of encouragement "where appropriate", although this woolly definition would need hardening up if it were to be enforced. Norwich and Sheffield United felt that this wasn't a matter for government intervention, QPR and Derby were in favour of licensing, whilst Luton and Millwall were in most in favour of banning beards altogether.
What is the capital of Ecuador ?
In our annual academic test we went for Geography; a disappointing 38% of responses proved accurate. Southampton achieved the highest result of 60% accuracy, although they do have a geographical advantage due to proximity - not that this helped Plymouth, who languished in 13th on this one. Derby and Stoke were least capable here - perhaps unsurprising in the latter case, since no members of Ecuador's 2002 World Cup squad sported beards. It's Quito, by the way, and we were fussy about spelling.
If your players were given the task of making gravy as some kind of team-building exercise, how would it turn out?
It's a sad day for the nation's food-lovers, with "Strangely Lumpy" coming out a strong winner with 595 votes overall. To what extent this result is influenced by the presence of the aesthetically pleasing word "lumpy" is unclear. Just Right came in second (344) followed by Custard (178), Cold Water (137) and Dry Paste (110).
Coventry and Sheffield United are most likely to produce lumpy gravy, which nobody who's seen either side play over the last couple of years will be too surprised about. Stoke and Burnley are most likely to generate Custard, whilst Luton have the greatest faith in their squad getting it Just Right - pushing Delia's charges, Norwich City, into second. Cardiff and Coventry were the most likely to generate Dry Paste, whilst thinness of squads at Millwall and Crewe may contribute to them topping the Cold Water table.
Which is best, Mud or dust?
A conclusive 78% in favour of Mud, here... Coventry and Derby most decisive on this score, whilst Southampton and Crewe were least so. Coventry's vote may be influenced by the desire for some firm progress with their Ricoh Arena development...
Is there really any need?
A narrow majority, 54% to 46%, thought there was. Derby and QPR were most certain about this, whilst Wolves and Sheffield Wednesday weren't altogether convinced.
