Main Menu
Contents
What's New
Search
Comments
BLIND, STUPID AND DESPERATE
 
03/04: Preview:
‹beranalysis

Predictions
The table below summarises the relative confidence (or lack of) of Division One supporters at the start of play. As ever, the results are sensitive to timing. Like last year, eighteen clubs predict a top-half finish with 11 predicting a play-off place (an increase on last year's nine). The mean prediction has 9th back up to 8th, possibly a reflection of the pandemonium that was prevalent last summer, although not as high as the 7th average prediction two yars ago

Last year's confidence position in brackets...

                       VOTES        MEAN PRED
1  (-)	West Ham        30            2.27 
2  (-)	West Brom       41            2.49
----------------------------------------------
3  (13)	Sheff Utd       37            3.73 
4  (1)	Ipswich         27            3.89 
5  (8)	Millwall        32            4.00 
6  (18)	Reading         71            4.20 
----------------------------------------------
7  (15)	Nottm Forest    32            5.41 
8  (4)	Norwich         43            5.42 
9  (5)	Preston         28            6.11 
10 (12)	Watford        356            6.46 
11 (-)	Sunderland      32            6.53 
12 (11)	Crystal Palace  36            8.81 
13 (-)	Wigan           28            9.57 
14 (7)	Coventry        28            9.86 
15 (10)	Burnley         27           10.46 
16 (21)	Bradford        85           10.64 
17 (3)	Derby           27           10.78 
18 (16)	Gillingham      31           11.00 
19 (22)	Rotherham       26           13.46 
20 (-)	Cardiff         30           13.57 
21 (20)	Walsall         26           15.19
---------------------------------------------- 
22 (14)	Stoke           57           16.46 
23 (-)	Crewe           25           17.80 
24 (24) Franchise FC     0             ???		
	
TOTAL                 1155            7.91

The Perfect Table
The table below summarises the pet hates and sympathies of Division One supporters by standardising each club's votes to a weight of 25 and then summing. Thus, a club with 25 correspondents has the votes added straight into the pile, whilst a club from which 50 responses were received will have its votes halved. From Watford, for example, the number of votes for relegation for each club according to the Hornet's support is multiplied by 25/356=0.0702. Clear ? Good.

Watford's popularity has waned in comparison to previous seasons, possibly as a result of more aesthetically pleasing clubs arriving in the division (West Ham, Crewe) than leaving it (Wolves, Wednesday, Leicester). Which doesn't explain Cardiff, obviously, who knock Millwall off the bottom after two years.

With less than 40 votes for promotion or relegation in total, Watford was again overall the least frequent choice, with Bradford second on 45. Cardiff (290) and West Ham (269) picked up the most votes in total.

                                UP      DOWN    POINTS
1   (9) Nottm Forest        194.43     52.68    141.75 
2   (-) West Ham            188.21     80.49    107.72 
---------------------------------------------------------
3   (1) Ipswich             100.52     59.13     41.39 
4   (-) Crewe                85.41     45.42     39.99 
5  (16) Reading              57.36     20.17     37.19 
6   (2) Norwich              57.89     30.81     27.09 
---------------------------------------------------------
7   (-) West Brom            75.41     50.3      25.11
8   (-) Sunderland           74.92     57.52     17.40 
9   (5) Watford              27.95     11.71     16.24 
10 (15) Rotherham            29.91     29.77      0.14 
11  (7) Walsall              25.03     31.43     -6.40 
12  (-) Wigan                25.23     34.54     -9.31
13  (3) Preston              17.75     34.57    -16.82 
14  (6) Coventry             21.96     39.15    -17.19 
15 (17) Gillingham           16.77     39.16    -22.39
16 (22) Bradford              9.36     36.30    -26.94
17 (21) Crystal Palace       11.83     54.48    -42.65 
18 (20) Sheff Utd            55.40    102.89    -47.49
19  (4) Derby                15.66     64.33    -48.67 
20 (10) Burnley              11.24     75.22    -63.98 
21 (19) Stoke                11.93    147.59   -135.67 
---------------------------------------------------------
22 (18) Franchise FC         14.02    159.76   -145.74 
23 (24) Millwall              8.63    190.46   -181.83
24  (-) Cardiff              13.19    277.11   -263.92 

TOTAL                      1150      1725 
Choice Signing
Henceforth re-christened the Joe Cole award, the West Ham captain polling 302 votes in total - over one quarter of the entire survey. Some distance behind in second was Kevin Phillips (71) followed by Jermain Defoe (58) and Michael Brown (55).

Watford : Red Shorts or Black Shorts
The verdict of the overall census was almost exactly 3:2 in favour of Black Shorts (662:442). This can be explained in part by the unfortunate phrasing of the question... intended as a "what should Watford wear", it may have been interpreted as "what do Watford wear", accounting for the higher Black verdict, replicated in the Watford vote that makes up roughly 30% of the survey. Or maybe I'm just bitter. Walsall were most in favour of black shorts, with their West Midlands neighbours West Brom most in favour of red (respec').

Club versus Country
Asked to choose between their club winning the title and their country winning the European Championships next summer, the overall poll came down heavily in favour of local issues, just over 75% of those polled putting Club over Country. Norwich were most decisive about this with only one dissenter in 43, whilst Cardiff were the only club to put country over club interests.

Who would you vote as Luton Manager?
An overwhelming show of support with just a little sniggering at the back gives Joe Kinnear the post with 282 votes in total. Second in line is Luca Vialli (77) followed by Mike Newell (34), Trevor Francis (22) and Mickey Mouse (21).

Can you give one of our editors a job?
Preston were the most helpful bunch here, with West Ham least co-operative. Many thanks to all the suggestions along the line of "rent boy", "sex slave" etc. Witty and original. No, really...

The A-Team
Murdock tops the poll overall with 38% of the total vote. BA comes in second (27%) with Face and Hannibal virtually tied for third on 18%. Those crazy guys at Walsall gave Murdock the highest proportional vote, the only poll in which any of the four polled a majority. The need for a grand masterplan is obviously evident at Coventry, where Hannibal faired best (31%) and the Faceman would find an unlikely but welcoming home in Rotherham should he fancy a break from the being a Soldier of Fortune in LA (35%). Millwall gave BA his highest poll (41%). Which made me laugh. Little things please little minds, I guess.

Spelling Test
Don't let Radio 5 onto this, they'll turn it into a feature and get the Education Minister to comment. A pitiful 48% of those polled correctly identified the true spelling of ACCOMMODATION from a pick-list of four options. Gillingham (62%) faired best whilst Crystal Palace (34%) wear the dunces cap in the corner. Walsall owned up to the most cheating, whilst West Ham don't go in for that sort of thing (or so they'd have us believe) - 11% of those polled owned up to having cheated overall. Nineteen of these still managed to answer incorrectly, of which the greatest proportion relative to the size of the poll came from Burnley , concerning which I'm saying nothing. 3.5% of those polled bottled out of this question, Rotherham the most serious offenders.

Are you a regular reader of the Daily Mail?
A worryingly large 10.8% of the poll not only do this but are prepared to admit to it. Coventry are the most serious offenders, with Millwall the least.

If you're happy and you know it...
Almost 75% of those polled claimed to be happy and clapped accordingly. Interestingly the three apparently happiest clubs (Walsall, Gillingham and Watford) were also in the top four cheaterers in the Spelling test, whilst the least happy (West Ham and Derby) claimed to be the most honest. There's a proverb in there somewhere...